Peer-Reviewed Publications

      Modeling the population health impact of introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. market

      Djurdjevic, S.; Lee, P. N.; Weitkunat, R.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Lüdicke, F.; Baker, G.

      Published
      May 16, 2018
      DOI
      10.3390/healthcare6020047
      PMID
      29772688
      Link to publication
      Topic
      Summary

      Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP relative exposure. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.

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      Reduced Risk Products ("RRPs”) is the term we use to refer to products that present, are likely to present, or have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continuing smoking. PMI has a range of RRPs in various stages of development, scientific assessment and commercialization. Our RRPs are smoke-free products that produce an aerosol that contains far lower quantities of harmful and potentially harmful constituents than found in cigarette smoke.