Peer-Reviewed Publications

      Quantifying the risk-reduction potential of new Modified Risk Tobacco Products

      Martin, F.; Vuillaume, G.; Baker, G.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Ricci, P. F.; Lüdicke, F.; Weitkunat, R.

      Published
      Dec 16, 2017
      DOI
      10.1016/j.yrtph.2017.12.011
      PMID
      29258927
      Link to publication
      Topic
      Summary

      Quantitative risk assessment of novel Modified Risk Tobacco Products (MRTP) must rest on indirect measurements that are indicative of disease development prior to epidemiological data becoming available. For this purpose, a Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) has been developed to estimate the reduction in the number of deaths from smoking-related diseases following the introduction of an MRTP. One key parameter of the model, the F-factor, describes the effective dose upon switching from cigarette smoking to using an MRTP. Biomarker data, collected in clinical studies, can be analyzed to estimate the effects of switching to an MRTP as compared to quitting smoking. Based on transparent assumptions, a link function is formulated that translates these effects into the F-factor. The concepts of ‘lack of sufficiency’ and ‘necessity’ are introduced, allowing for a parametrization of a family of link functions. These can be uniformly sampled, thus providing different ‘scenarios’ on how biomarker-based evidence can be translated into the F-factor to inform the PHIM.

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      Reduced Risk Products ("RRPs”) is the term we use to refer to products that present, are likely to present, or have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continuing smoking. PMI has a range of RRPs in various stages of development, scientific assessment and commercialization. Our RRPs are smoke-free products that produce an aerosol that contains far lower quantities of harmful and potentially harmful constituents than found in cigarette smoke.